Cost-benefits analysis of ultra-low emissions standard on air quality and health impact in thermal power plants in China

As China's largest energy infrastructure, thermal power plant consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality, human health and socioeconomic development. Thus, a series of control policies have been implemented to alleviate those impacts in China. Particularly, China has witnessed unprecedented declines in air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants since the ultra-low emissions (ULE) standards were implemented. In contrast, the effect of the ULE policy on air quality, health and cost benefits remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study estimates the improved air quality and associated health and economic benefits under the ULE standards in the thermal power sector by using a measure-specific approach, combining a bottom-up emission inventory, an atmospheric model, a health assessment model and a cost analysis model. The results show that all the control measures lead to reduced air pollution, and renovating pre-existing units (RPU) is the most effective. Compared to without implementing the ULE policy, the population-weighted average PM2.5 and O3 concentrations decreased by 1.50 μg/m3 and 0.87 ppm, and 67,831 premature deaths could be avoided nationally. Furthermore, the results also show the net economic benefits of combining health benefits and costs due to control measures are 109.92 billion Yuan (in 2015 value) in China. The comprehensive results reveal that the health benefits outweigh the direct policy. Based on these empirical findings and the specific circumstances of China, we suggest that RPU should be further promoted to the entire of China, and if necessary, establish a long-term compensation mechanism for inter-provincial interests and institute and enforce comprehensive policies that carefully consider the health impacts of policies. This study provides strong arguments for China's policy-making and considering tightening emission standards for thermal power plants worldwide.