How much carbon storage will the ecological space leave in a rapid urbanization area? Scenario analysis from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

• Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration ecological spatial quality was evaluated. • Land growth was simulated by coupling the ecological and socio-economic factors. • Ecological carbon storage was estimated under various land growth scenarios. • Regional ecological carbon storage maintenance implications were raised. Ecological carbon storage is vital to carbon neutrality by capturing and storing carbon from the atmosphere. As one of top global agglomerations, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is faced with continuous ecological carbon storage loss during rapid urbanization, balance the socioeconomic development and ecological space maintenance to alleviate the gradually shrinking trend of carbon storage is necessary. In this study, regional ecological spatial quality was evaluated, the area of 25915.60km 2 recognized as the ecological restricted area. Coupled with socioeconomic factors, future spatial growth patterns of different ecological priority scenarios were simulated with system dynamic model and cellular automata model. The least ecological space loss predicted from 2030 to 2060 is 2899km 2 , of which scenario the ecological carbon storage decline from 2093.26Tg to 2059.60Tg. From the city level, Tangshan predicted to suffer the highest shrink rate of 6.52% while Baoding prone to loss the most carbon storage of 9.78Tg. The proposed method can be used to rapid urbanization area ecological carbon storage estimation, the results contribute to regional dominant ecological carbon storage recognition and maintenance.