Flash Drought Onset and Development Mechanisms Captured With Soil Moisture and Vegetation Data Assimilation

Abstract Flash droughts evolve and intensify rapidly under the influence of anomalous atmospheric conditions. In this study, we investigate the role of assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and vegetation properties in capturing the evolution and impacts of two flash droughts in the Northern Great Plains. We find that during 2016 drought triggered by anomalously high temperatures and excessive evaporative demands, multivariate data assimilation (DA) of MODIS‐derived leaf area index (LAI) and Soil Moisture Active Passive SM within Noah‐Multiparameterization model helps capture elevated transpiration at onset. Assimilation of LAI particularly helped model the resulting rapid decline in SM during onset with as high as 10.0% steeper rate of decline compared to the simulation without any assimilation. Modeled‐SM anomalies exhibit a 7.5% and 11.7% increase in similarity with Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) data and U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps, respectively. In contrast, during 2017 flash drought driven by record‐low precipitation during summers, SM assimilation resulted in largest rates of decline in rootzone SM, as large as 48.4% compared to results from no assimilation. Multivariate DA of SM and LAI results in 6.7% and 14.3% higher spatial similarity with ESI and USDM, respectively, and is necessary to model rapid intensification caused by anomalous precipitation deficits. This study elucidates the need to incorporate multiple observational constraints from remote sensing to effectively capture rapid onset rates, intensification, and severity of flash drought following different propagation mechanisms. This is fundamental for drought early detection to provide a wider window of response and implement efficient mitigation strategies.