How do perceptions of safety and car ownership importance affect autonomous vehicle adoption?

感知 潜变量 情感(语言学) 背景(考古学) 结构方程建模 业务 模式选择 偏爱 汽车保有量 模式(计算机接口) 营销 运输工程 计算机科学 心理学 经济 工程类 微观经济学 公共交通 沟通 神经科学 古生物学 人工智能 机器学习 生物 操作系统
作者
Parastoo Jabbari,Joshua Auld,Don MacKenzie
出处
期刊:Travel behaviour and society [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:28: 128-140 被引量:17
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.tbs.2022.02.002
摘要

In this study, we explicitly modeled how individuals’ perceptions of automated vehicle (AV) safety and the importance they place on car ownership affect mode choices involving conventional and automated vehicles in the context of privately owned cars and ridehailing services. We adopted psychometric questions to capture these two latent variables and designed a stated preference survey based on the participants’ actual travel patterns. Then, we quantified the impact of these latent variables on mode choices using an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. We found that both latent variables have a statistically significant effect on mode choices. The results show that car ownership importance has the most potent effect on privately owned cars (conventional car and self-driving car), followed by driverless ridehailing and conventional ridehailing. We also found that changes in safety perception are equivalent to sizable changes in price. We further investigated the impact of improvements in safety perception through four scenarios. The scenario testing results show that as the distribution of perceived safety is compressed toward positive safety perception, the market share of AVs spikes and dominates regular cars. Our results demonstrate that based on our respondents’ current understanding of AVs, even if AV prices were comparable to regular cars, we cannot expect widespread use of AVs. However, improvements in AVs’ safety and, consequently, consumer safety perception can considerably expand AVs’ market share, and may offset the high cost of using the technology.

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