Systematic Reviews of Prediction Models

Chapter 18 Systematic Reviews of Prediction Models Gary S. Collins, Gary S. CollinsSearch for more papers by this authorKarel G.M. Moons, Karel G.M. MoonsSearch for more papers by this authorThomas P.A. Debray, Thomas P.A. DebraySearch for more papers by this authorDouglas G. Altman, Douglas G. AltmanSearch for more papers by this authorRichard D. Riley, Richard D. RileySearch for more papers by this author Gary S. Collins, Gary S. CollinsSearch for more papers by this authorKarel G.M. Moons, Karel G.M. MoonsSearch for more papers by this authorThomas P.A. Debray, Thomas P.A. DebraySearch for more papers by this authorDouglas G. Altman, Douglas G. AltmanSearch for more papers by this authorRichard D. Riley, Richard D. RileySearch for more papers by this author Book Editor(s):Matthias Egger, Matthias Egger Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Centre for Infectious Diseases Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, South AfricaSearch for more papers by this authorJulian P.T. Higgins, Julian P.T. Higgins Professor of Evidence Synthesis Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKSearch for more papers by this authorGeorge Davey Smith, George Davey Smith Professor of Clinical Epidemiology and Director of the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKSearch for more papers by this author First published: 22 April 2022 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119099369.ch18 AboutPDFPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShareShare a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Summary Prediction models combine values of multiple predictors to estimate an individual's risk of having a certain outcome or disease (diagnostic models) or developing a future outcome (prognostic models). Systematic reviews are needed to identify existing prediction models for a certain target population or outcome and to summarize their predictive performance and heterogeneity in their performance. Appraising the quality and reporting of a prediction model study is essential. Studies describing the development or validation of a prediction model often do not conform to prevailing methodological standards and key details are often not reported. Meta-analysis of the predictive performance of a specific prediction model from multiple external validation studies of that model is possible, focusing on calibration and discrimination. In this chapter, we describe the types of systematic reviews that can be conducted on prediction model studies and discuss the challenges faced in identifying, appraising, and qualitatively and quantitatively synthesizing these studies. Systematic Reviews in Health Research: Meta-Analysis in Context, Third Edition RelatedInformation