Carbon neutrality prediction of municipal solid waste treatment sector under the shared socioeconomic pathways

• GHG emissions from China's waste treatment are estimated from 2010 to 2060. • A two-layer scenario framework was designed for carbon neutrality projection. • Economic development was the primary driving force of GHG emissions. • The highest GHG emissions appear under the fossil-fueled development pathway. • Only scenarios with MSW sorting and recycling can realize carbon neutrality by 2060. To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) sector, it is crucial to describe its GHG emission patterns and propose suitable mitigation measures. Therefore, this study forecasts GHG emissions from MSW treatment by combining IPCC, logarithmic mean divisia index and machine learning models. Carbon neutrality potentials of China towards 2060 are analyzed under assumed policy scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results showed that GHG emissions from China's MSW treatment increased nearly 37 megatons in the past decade, with incineration emissions increasing fast. Economic development was the dominant and positive driving force of MSW GHG emissions. Scenario analysis revealed that carbon neutrality from MSW treatment could be achieved only after implementing MSW classification, reducing approximately 125 megatons GHG emissions. Fossil-fueled development pathway (SSP5) will generate the most GHG emissions among SSPs. Finally, policy recommendations on priority regions, MSW treatment transition and circular economy schemes are proposed.