Longitudinal analysis of serum urate in prediabetic phase

Abstract Objectives Despite the well-established association between prediabetes and hyperuricaemia, knowledge about serum urate (SU) trends during the prediabetic phase is limited. Therefore, we aimed to assess the longitudinal changes of SU in individuals with prediabetes. Methods Individuals with prediabetes, defined by initial haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels between 5.7% and 6.4%, were identified using electronic health records from an academic health system (2007–2022). We required at least one SU test before and after the prediabetes diagnosis. The primary outcome was the longitudinal SU trends during the follow-up period, estimated with a multivariable mixed-effects model. Patients were censored at diabetes onset. Marginal effects of covariates on SU changes were estimated. Subsequent analyses examined SU variations in subgroups stratified by age, sex, body mass index (BMI), HbA1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and metformin use. Results Out of 25 526 individuals with prediabetes, 1,521 met the SU cohort requirements, contributing to 6,832 SU observations. At baseline, median age was 63 years and 40% were female. Median values were SU 6.3 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.9% and BMI 30 kg/m2. Median follow-up was 7.4 years. Older age, male sex, greater BMI, and higher HbA1c were significant predictors of increased longitudinal SU levels. Individuals with a BMI ≥30 kg/m2 exhibited higher SU levels compared with those with lower BMI values. Conclusion Among individuals with prediabetes, several baseline variables were significant predictors of increased SU levels over time. These longitudinal trends in SU, support the potential for early intervention during the prediabetic phase, possibly reducing the risk of gout.