Construction of a Diagnostic Model for Small Cell Lung Cancer Combining Metabolomics and Integrated Machine Learning

Abstract Background To date, no study has systematically explored the potential role of serum metabolites and lipids in the diagnosis of small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, we aimed to conduct a case-cohort study that included 191 cases of SCLC, 91 patients with lung adenocarcinoma, 82 patients with squamous cell carcinoma, and 97 healthy controls. Methods Metabolomics and lipidomics were applied to analyze different metabolites and lipids in the serum of these patients. The SCLC diagnosis model (d-model) was constructed using an integrated machine learning technology and a training cohort (n = 323) and was validated in a testing cohort (n=138). Results Eight metabolites, including 1-mristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, 16b-hydroxyestradiol, 3-phosphoserine, cholesteryl sulfate, D-lyxose, dioctyl phthalate, DL-lactate and Leu-Phe, were successfully selected to distinguish SCLC from controls. The d-model was constructed based on these 8 metabolites and showed improved diagnostic performance for SCLC, with the area under curve (AUC) of 0.933 in the training cohort and 0.922 in the testing cohort. Importantly, the d-model still had an excellent diagnostic performance after adjusting the stage and related clinical variables and, combined with the progastrin-releasing peptide (ProGRP), showed the best diagnostic performance with 0.975 of AUC for limited-stage patients. Conclusion This study is the first to analyze the difference between metabolomics and lipidomics and to construct a d-model to detect SCLC using integrated machine learning. This study may be of great significance for the screening and early diagnosis of SCLC patients.