Use of 6‐minute walk distance to predict lung transplant‐free survival in fibrosing non‐IPF interstitial lung diseases

Abstract Background and Objective The identification of progression in patients with fibrosing non‐idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) represents an ongoing clinical challenge. Lung function decline alone may have significant limitations in the detection of clinically significant progression. We hypothesized that longitudinal changes of 6‐min walk distance (6MWD) from baseline, simultaneously considered with measures of lung function, may independently predict survival and identifying clinically significant progression of disease. Methods Forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing lung capacity (DLCO) and 6MWD were considered both at baseline and at 1 year in a discovery cohort ( n = 105) and in a validation cohort ( n = 138) from different centres. The primary endpoint was lung transplant (LTx)‐free survival. Results Average follow‐up was 3 years in both cohorts. Combined incidence of deaths and LTx was 29% and 21%, respectively. No collinearity and no strong correlations were observed among FVC, DLCO and 6MWD longitudinal changes. While age, gender and BMI were not significant, 6MWD decline ≥24 m predicted LTx‐free‐survival significantly and independently from FVC and DLCO declines, with high sensitivity and specificity, in both the discovery and the validation cohorts. Although FVC and DLCO declines remained significant predictors of LTx‐free survival, 6MWD decline was more accurate than the proposed ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT functional criteria. Results were confirmed after stratifying patients by baseline FVC. Conclusion Longitudinal declines of 6MWD are associated with poor survival in fibrosing ILDs across a wide range of baseline severity, with high accuracy. 6MWD longitudinal decline is largely independent from lung function decline and may be integrated into the routine assessment of progression.