Assessment and management for future habitat risks under the implementation of China's territorial spatial planning: A case study from Hainan Island

Land management policies and their spatial planning are crucial factors leading to the rise of future habitat risks. However, the differences in future habitat risks under various spatial policies and their combinations remain unclear, and there is a lack of targeted measures to manage these risks in China's territorial spatial planning. The study developed a feasible framework to tackle this issue. Eight future land use scenarios were simulated based on the combination of land management policies and spatial planning data, and then the habitat risks associated with each scenario were evaluated. Moreover, the study quantified habitat risk variations across diverse scenarios by examining the spatiotemporal changes in risk centers and their associated risk values. Lastly, the study identified critical risk zones based on the assessment results of risk levels and suggested relevant control strategies. The study area chosen was Hainan Island, a region experiencing rapid urbanization and possessing significant ecological resources. The results suggest that while development plans mitigate habitat loss, they accelerate the movement speed of the risk gravity center by up to 5 times. Under the implementation of farmland protection policies, the overall risk levels exhibit a noticeable increase, with the risk level at the center of gravity rising by up to 3.5 times. Implementing ecological protection red lines reduces the transfer rate of habitat risk centers by at least 0.4 times but generally leads to increased habitat risk levels. This study reveals future habitat risk under China's major land management policies and strengthens habitat risk management worldwide.