Changes in Magnitude and Timing of High Flows in Large Rain-Dominated Watersheds in the Cold Region of North-Eastern China

Global warming-induced earlier streamflow timing and changes in flood risk have been widely reported in snow-dominated regions where the land surface hydrology is dominated by winter snow accumulation and spring melt. However, impacts of climate warming on flow regime in the cold regions dominated by monsoonal rain during the warm season have received little attention in the literature. In this study, the responses of magnitude and timing of high flows to climate warming were analyzed by using a paired-year approach based on the hydrometeorological data of two large rain-dominated watersheds in the cold region of north-eastern China in the past approximately four decades (1975–2013). The results indicated that high flow timings of two watersheds both exhibited significant negative trends associated with the significant increasing trends in air temperature and spring rain over the study period. The results from paired-year approach indicated average timings of high flows in the warming years were significantly advanced by 21 and 25 days in Upper Huma River (UHR) and Ganhe River (GR) watersheds, respectively, which was at least partly attributed to the more frequent occurrence of spring snowmelt/rain generated high flows because of climate warming-induced earlier snowmelt and increased spring rain. The average magnitude of high flows decreased by 13.7% and 14.0% in the warming years compared with those in the reference years in the UHR and GR watersheds, respectively. These findings have implications for water resource management in the study region and similar rain-dominated cold regions across the globe.