悲观
收益
乐观 主义
自然灾害
经济
损害赔偿
无理数
库存(枪支)
行为经济学
金融经济学
精算学
财务
心理学
政治学
地理
社会心理学
几何学
法学
考古
气象学
哲学
认识论
数学
作者
Dongmin Kong,Lin Zhi-yang,Yanan Wang,Junyi Xiang
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101860
摘要
The effects of natural disasters on capital markets have been investigated by limited evidence even though these calamities bring considerable damages or loss of life. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts' earnings forecasts for affected firms in China. We obtain three key findings. First, analysts' optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas. Second, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, thereby indicating that post-earthquake analyst pessimism is not based on rational judgment. Third, media attention promotes irrational pessimism among analysts, and post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks. However, analysts correct the bias after initial irrational forecasts. Taken together, our findings contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the effects of natural disasters on analyst forecasts.
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