Long-term temperature variability and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases: A large, representative cohort study in China

In the context of global climate change, far less is known about the impact of long-term temperature variability (TV), especially in developing countries. The current study aimed to estimate the effect of long-term TV on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China. A total of 23,721 individuals with a mean age of 56.15 years were enrolled at baseline from 2012 to 2016 and followed up during 2017–2019. TV was defined as the standard deviation of daily temperatures during survey years and was categorized into tertiles (lowest≤ 8.78 °C, middle = 8.78–10.07 °C, highest ≥ 10.07 °C). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) between TV and CVD. During the median follow-up of 4.65 years, we ascertained 836 cases of incident CVD. For per 1 °C increase in TV, there was a 6% increase of CVD (HR = 1.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01–1.11]). A significant positive trend was observed between CVD risk and increasing levels of TV compared to the lowest tertile [HR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.13–1.59) for the medium tertile, HR = 1.72 (95% CI: 1.35–2.19) for the highest tertile, Ptrend < 0.001]. Exposure to high TV would lose 2.11 disease-free years for the population aged 35–65 years and 66 CVD cases (or 7.95% cases) could been attributable to TV higher than 8.11 °C in the current study. The current findings suggested that long-term TV was associated with a higher risk of CVD incidence, it is needed to reduce the TV-related adverse health effect.