Causal Analysis of Lateral Deviation of Flights in Terminal Airspace

Aircraft arrival and departure procedures are designed by air navigation service providers to enable the orderly and safe flow of air traffic. However, in actual operations, flights often deviate from standard routes, especially within terminal airspace. In this context, this paper presents an analysis of the determining factors for the lateral deviation (LD) of flight paths compared with the standard aeronautical departure and arrival procedures. For that, aircraft tracking data recorded by surveillance systems were leveraged and a linear regression model was employed to map structural and operational factors into LD. Our results indicate that LD tends to decrease with increased demand and low ceiling or visibility conditions. On the other hand, convective weather tends to increase LDs as additional holdings and rerouting may be necessary. Besides, significant levels of deviation can be associated with some specific arrival and departure procedures.