The Kurdistan Referendum Movement: Political Opportunity Structures and National Identity

Abstract This article examines the lack of mass mobilization by Iraqi Kurds to establish an independent Kurdistan. It argues that while the outcome of an unofficial January 2005 referendum – in which 98 per cent of Kurds supported independence – was a clear expression of their will, the political opportunity structures within which the Kurdistan Referendum Movement operates are closed to the formation of a mass-based social movement. Utilizing data from a survey of Kurdish elites and activists, as well as follow-up interviews, this analysis provides insights into the future of democracy in Iraq and the value of political opportunity theory in understanding mass mobilization. Keywords: Kurdistan Referendum MovementKurdsIraqpolitical opportunity structuressocial movementsnational identitydiaspora Notes The name for the region of Iraq populated by Kurds is a matter of some dispute: Kurdish activists prefer the term 'Southern Kurdistan' because it represents their aspirations for an independent state covering all territories populated by Kurds; others prefer the term 'Iraqi Kurdistan' to denote the Kurdish region of the state of Iraq. Both are technically correct given one's perspective (cultural/ethnic versus political). This paper will use the latter, since that is the term used by the United Nations, the United States, and Iraqi officials, including Iraqi President (and leader of one of the two main Kurdish political parties) Jalal Talabani. Khabat, 2 February 2005, reproduced as 'Poll Shows 99.5 Percent of Kurd in Arbil Support Independence', in BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 2 February 2005. This vote total was widely reported in the Western media. It should also be noted that this vote occurred in an election which saw high turnout by both Kurds and Shia Arabs – however, most Sunnis stayed home on election day. Kurdistani Nuwe, 15 February 2005, reproduced as 'Kurdistan Referendum Movement Campaigns for Self Determination', in BBC Monitoring International Reports, 17 February 2005. See, for example, Ramón Máiz, 'Politics and the Nation: Nationalist Mobilisation and Ethnic Differences', Nations and Nationalism, Vol. 9, No. 2 (2003), pp. 195–212; Nebojša Vladisavljevi, 'Nationalism, Social Movement Theory and the Grass Roots Movement of Kosovo Serbs, 1986–1988', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 54, No. 5 (2002), pp. 771–90; Kristian Stokke and Anne Kristi Ryntveit, 'The Struggle for Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka', Growth and Change, Vol. 31, No. 2 (Spring 2000), pp. 285–304; André Lecours, 'Ethnonationalism in the West: A Theoretical Exploration', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Spring 2000), pp. 103–24. Máiz, 'Politics and the Nation' (note 4), p. 202. Yossi Shain and Tamara Cofman Wittes, 'Peace as a Three-Level Game: The Role of Diasporas in Conflict Resolution', in Thomas Ambrosio (ed.), Ethnic Identity Groups and U.S. Foreign Policy (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002), pp. 169–98. David S. Meyer, 'Protest and Political Opportunities', Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 30, No. 10 (August 2004), pp. 125–45; David Meyer and Debra Minkoff, 'Conceptualizing Political Opportunity', Social Forces, Vol. 82, No. 4 (June 2004), pp.1457–92. Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 85. Doug McAdam et al., 'Introduction', in McAdam et al. (eds), Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 1–20. William A. Gamson and David S. Meyer, 'Framing Political Opportunity', in McAdam et al. (eds), Comparative Perspectives (note 9), pp. 275–90 (275–6). Ibid., p. 285. Albert Hirschman, The Rhetoric of Reaction (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991). For an overview, see the following: David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds, 3rd ed. (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2004); Mehrdad R. Izady, The Kurds: A Concise Handbook (London: Taylor and Francis, 1992); Kerim Yildiz and Tom Blass, The Kurds In Iraq: The Past, Present and Future (London: Pluto, 2004). Human Rights Watch, Genocide in Iraq: The Anfal Campaign Against Kurds (New York: Human Rights Watch, 1993). Because of the physical distances amongst the Kurdish diaspora, the KRM has relied heavily on the internet. The web site kurdistanreferendum.org, for example, is hosted in the United Kingdom and is registered by the international representative and organizer of the International Consultative Committee of Kurdistan Referendum Movement, Kamal Mirawdeli, a leading Kurdish activist in Western Europe. By 'unlinked', this refers to the fact that the survey itself was not linked to either the North Dakota State University homepage or from any academic department. This meant that unless individuals were personally given the survey web site address, they would not be able to easily find it. The survey and results can be found at http://www.ndsu.edu/ndsu/ambrosio/kurdsurvey/. 'Kurds Set to Emerge as Key Players in New Iraq after Years of Struggle', Agence France Presse, 13 February 2005. Michiel Leezenberg, 'Iraqi Kurdistan: Contours of a Post-Civil War Society', Third World Quarterly, Vol. 26, Nos. 4/5 (June 2005), pp. 631–47. Rauf Naqishbendi, 'Corruption Undermines Social and Economic Justice', www.kurdmedia.com/articles.aspx?id=11045 (accessed 22 October 2006). Ubaid Rahmani, Aso, 7 June 2006, reproduced as 'Re-unification of Administrations or Sharing out Privileges', www.kurdmedia.com/articles.aspx?id=12927 (accessed 22 October 2006). The translator of this article, Kamal Mirawdeli, is the director of the KRM. Qassim Abdul-Zahra, 'Kurd Negotiator Says American Pressure Could Lead to Giving Islam Bigger Role in Iraq', Associated Press, 19 August 2005. Rebwar Fatah, 'Did Kurds Elect Zalmay Khalilzad to Represent Them?', www.kurdmedia.com/articles.aspx?id=10898 (accessed 22 October 2006). 'Dr. Rice Addresses War on Terror', www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040819‐5.html (accessed 16 October 2006). Emphasis added. Kurdistani Nuwe, 5 October 2004, reproduced as 'Movement Calls for Referendum on Kurds = Self Determination', in BBC Monitoring International Reports, 5 October 2004. 'Al-Yawar's Chauvinistic Proclamation must Be Vehemently Condemned', www.kurdmedia.com/articles.aspx?id=5593 (accessed 22 October 2006). Only 3.6 per cent believed that Baghdad would abide by any 'special status' agreement and 25 per cent said that it depended on how well the Kurdish territory was organized. 'Turkey, Iran Find Common Ground in Denouncing Delay in Kirkuk Polls', Turkish Daily News, 24 November 2004; 'Despite Assurances, Turkey Worried Iraq May Disintegrate', Turkish Daily News, 27 September 2005. The safe haven established in Iraqi Kurdistan after the Persian Gulf War (1990–1991) was initiated by the US and the UK, not the UN itself. Kofi Annan made this statement in a press conference on 24 February 1998. United Nations Document SG/SM/6470, www.un.org/News/Press/docs/1998/19980224.SGSM6470.html (accessed 13 October 2006). Vladimir van Wilgenburg, 'Montenegro's Independence Vote is an Inspiration for Kurds', www.kurdmedia.com/articles.aspx?id=12443 (accessed 22 October 2006). Robert J. Beck and Thomas Ambrosio (eds), International Law and the Rise of Nations (New York: Chatham House, 2002). Kenneth Good, Liberal Model and Africa: Elites Against Democracy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002). David L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1985), pp. 291–364. Alissa J. Rubin, 'Kurds' Power Wanes as Arab Anger Rises', New York Times, 1 February 2008, p. A1. Additional informationNotes on contributorsAzad BerwariAzad Berwari is a PhD student in the Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Emergency Management at North Dakota State University, USA. Thomas Ambrosio is Associate Professor of Political Science at North Dakota State University.