Study on the Spatial Evolution of China’s Pulp and Paper Product Import Trade and Its Influencing Factors

The purpose of this research is to study the changes in the market structure of China’s pulp and paper product imports. In particular, the import trade environment and market layout of Chinese pulp and paper products have changed under the international context of the coronavirus pandemic and the Sino-US trade dispute and the domestic policy context of zero imports of Chinese waste paper. This study attempts to fill the gap regarding the influencing factors of market structure, while contributing new ideas on China’s trade in pulp and paper products. Based on pulp and paper product import and export trade data from 2005 to 2021, a trade gravity model was used to explore the changes in the share of China’s trade partners for pulp and paper product imports and their influencing factors. The results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 led to a significant increase in China’s imports of packaging paper products, bringing about an increase in Indonesia’s status as a partner in China’s pulp and paper product trade. The US-China trade dispute had an impact on pulp and paper product trade between the two countries, with China’s tax countermeasures causing the US to lose its status as a trading partner in China for pulp and paper product imports. The center of gravity for paper product imports has moved from the US and Japan to Indonesia and Russia. The restrictions on waste paper imports have shifted the focus of China’s paper raw material imports, with the US no longer being the main importer of China’s paper raw materials. Specifically, the main importers of wood pulp are Brazil and Chile, while the main importers of waste paper pulp are Thailand and Malaysia. In the future, China needs to continuously strengthen dialogue with the United States to resolve trade disputes and create a favorable environment for trade in pulp and paper products. At the same time, China’s paper enterprises should strengthen the expansion of the Southeast Asian market and reduce dependence on the US market, and China should continue to improve the waste paper recycling system and improve the utilization rate of domestic waste paper.