Metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population: evidence from NHANES 2001–2018

医学 胰岛素抵抗 血管病学 代谢综合征 内科学 糖尿病 人口 人口学 肥胖 环境卫生 内分泌学 社会学
作者
Mingxuan Duan,Xi Zhao,Shaolin Li,Guangrui Miao,Linpeng Bai,Qingyang Zhang,Wenxuan Yang,Xiaoyan Zhao
出处
期刊:Cardiovascular Diabetology [BioMed Central]
卷期号:23 (1) 被引量:52
标识
DOI:10.1186/s12933-024-02334-8
摘要

Abstract Background The prevalence of obesity-associated insulin resistance (IR) is increasing along with the increase in obesity rates. In this study, we compared the predictive utility of four alternative indexes of IR [triglyceride glucose index (TyG index), metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR), the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)] for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in the general population based on key variables screened by the Boruta algorithm. The aim was to find the best replacement index of IR. Methods In this study, 14,653 participants were screened from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001–2018). And TyG index, METS-IR, TG/HDL-C and HOMA-IR were calculated separately for each participant according to the given formula. The predictive values of IR replacement indexes for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in the general population were assessed. Results Over a median follow-up period of 116 months, a total of 2085 (10.23%) all-cause deaths and 549 (2.61%) cardiovascular disease (CVD) related deaths were recorded. Multivariate Cox regression and restricted cubic splines analysis showed that among the four indexes, only METS-IR was significantly associated with both all-cause and CVD mortality, and both showed non-linear associations with an approximate “U-shape”. Specifically, baseline METS-IR lower than the inflection point (41.33) was negatively associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.972, 95% CI 0.950–0.997 for all-cause mortality]. In contrast, baseline METS-IR higher than the inflection point (41.33) was positively associated with mortality (HR 1.019, 95% CI 1.011–1.026 for all-cause mortality and HR 1.028, 95% CI 1.014–1.043 for CVD mortality). We further stratified the METS-IR and showed that significant associations between METS-IR levels and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were predominantly present in the nonelderly population aged < 65 years. Conclusions In conjunction with the results of the Boruta algorithm, METS-IR demonstrated a more significant association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the U.S. population compared to the other three alternative IR indexes (TyG index, TG/HDL-C and HOMA-IR), particularly evident in individuals under 65 years old.
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