Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia

登革热 登革热病毒 人口学 爆发 系统发育树 进化生物学 生物 传输(电信) 病毒学 基因型 病毒系统动力学 流行病学 群体免疫 地理 动物 医学 遗传学 接种疫苗 基因 电气工程 内科学 工程类 社会学
作者
Cara E. Brook,Carly Rozins,Jennifer A. Bohl,Vida Ahyong,Sophana Chea,Liz Fahsbender,Rekol Huy,Sreyngim Lay,Rithea Leang,Yimei Li,Chanthap Lon,Somnang Man,Mengheng Oum,Graham R. Northrup,Fabiano Oliveira,Andrea R. Pacheco,Daniel M. Parker,Katherine I. Young,Mike Boots,Cristina M. Tato,Joseph L. DeRisi,Christina Yek,Jessica E. Manning
出处
期刊:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [National Academy of Sciences]
卷期号:121 (36)
标识
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2318704121
摘要

The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
1秒前
bkagyin应助鱼咬羊采纳,获得10
1秒前
Leeny发布了新的文献求助10
2秒前
3秒前
3秒前
飞行中的鱼完成签到,获得积分20
4秒前
牛牛眉目发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
菲晗子完成签到,获得积分20
5秒前
茜茜哎科研应助湛湛采纳,获得10
5秒前
zx发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
8秒前
9秒前
土豪的雪巧完成签到,获得积分10
10秒前
雨的前世完成签到,获得积分10
13秒前
13秒前
Sun发布了新的文献求助10
14秒前
gulllluuuukk完成签到,获得积分10
14秒前
可可西里完成签到,获得积分10
14秒前
15秒前
茜茜哎科研应助傅勃霖采纳,获得10
15秒前
15秒前
Lee发布了新的文献求助10
16秒前
17秒前
17秒前
牛牛眉目发布了新的文献求助10
18秒前
yang发布了新的文献求助10
20秒前
蛋挞完成签到 ,获得积分10
21秒前
李爱国应助zx采纳,获得10
21秒前
bunny完成签到,获得积分20
22秒前
新威宝贝完成签到,获得积分10
24秒前
24秒前
xr完成签到 ,获得积分10
24秒前
张雷应助yangyl采纳,获得10
25秒前
AXEDW完成签到 ,获得积分10
27秒前
csy完成签到,获得积分10
30秒前
顾矜应助黄启烽采纳,获得10
32秒前
ll完成签到 ,获得积分10
32秒前
材袅完成签到,获得积分10
32秒前
33秒前
帆船发布了新的文献求助10
33秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind 1000
Technical Brochure TB 814: LPIT applications in HV gas insulated switchgear 1000
Immigrant Incorporation in East Asian Democracies 500
Nucleophilic substitution in azasydnone-modified dinitroanisoles 500
不知道标题是什么 500
A Preliminary Study on Correlation Between Independent Components of Facial Thermal Images and Subjective Assessment of Chronic Stress 500
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3966366
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3511778
关于积分的说明 11159852
捐赠科研通 3246372
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1793416
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 874427
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 804388