The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China

The unbalanced development of regions is the national condition of China. Each province should consider the factors that affect the carbon peak and the differences in implementation conditions. This study adopts methods such as the extremum function equation, the dynamic decoupling path, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model. It discusses the carbon peak trend of G7 countries and Chinese provinces and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of factors affecting the intensive dynamic path for carbon decoupling. The results show that in China, only Beijing has reached the carbon peak state of G7 countries through coordinated economic growth and carbon intensity reduction. The developed countries of the G7 have either strong or weak decoupling boundary states, while only 13.33 % of provinces have evolved into strong decoupling states along intensive dynamic paths. The influence coefficient of the intensity reduction rate, the growth rate of the marketization index and foreign direct investment increased from 1.89, −0.27 and −0.16 in 2002 to 8.14, 0.32 and 0.55 in 2020, playing an increasingly important role in reaching the carbon peak in China. The factors are influenced by regional heterogeneity, for example, the regression coefficients for the growth of technology contract turnover in the eastern, central, and western provinces are 0.61, 0.50, and 0.08. The impact coefficient of the foreign direct investment growth in the Yangtze River Delta is 1.13, while in the northwestern inland region is −0.19. It indicates that provinces are difficult to shift toward sustainable strong decoupling. However, considering the development stage and provincial spatial heterogeneity of the carbon peak is conducive to promoting intensive dynamic paths and achieving sustainable strong decoupling.