The value of musculoskeletal ultrasound in predicting gout flares in index joints: a prospective cohort study of people with gout starting urate-lowering therapy

To evaluate whether ultrasound findings of monosodium urate (MSU) crystal deposition predict frequent gout flares in index joints over 12 months.This single-center study enrolled people with at least one gout flare involving the MTP1, ankle or knee joint. The most painful or most frequently joint was identified as index joint for analysis. All participants were started on urate-lowering therapy and had an ultrasound scan of the index joints at the baseline visit. OMERACT scores (for tophus, double contour sign and aggregates) were used to analyze whether ultrasound scores predicted frequent (≥2) gout flares in the index joint over 12 months.Frequent flares were significantly higher in those with ultrasound findings in all index joints (MTP1: tophus: 85.0% vs 46.0%, P < 0.001, aggregates: 78.8% vs 59.0%, P < 0.01; ankle: tophus: 54.6% vs 20.8%, P < 0.001; aggregates: 60.0% vs 35.9%, P < 0.05; knee: tophus: 68.4% vs 28.6%, P < 0.05). For the MTP1, for each 1-point increase in tophus score, the odds of frequent gout flares increased by 5.19 [(95%CI: 1.26-21.41), 7.91 [(95%CI: 2.23-28.14), and 13.79 [(95%CI: 3.79-50.20)] fold respectively. For the ankle, a tophus score of 3 markedly improved the prediction of the frequent flares [OR= 9.24 (95%CI=2.85-29.91)]. Semi-quantitative sum scores were associated with frequent flares with an OR (95%CI) of 13.66 (3.44-54.18), P < 0.001 at the MTP1, 7.05 (1.98-25.12), P < 0.001 at the ankle.Ultrasound features of MSU crystal deposition at the MTP1 and knee predict subsequent risk of frequent gout flares in the same joints following initiation of urate-lowering therapy, with the highest risk in those with high tophus scores.