Variation, Determinants and prediction of carbon emissions in Guizhou, a new economic growth pole in southwest China

Under the increasing pressure of global warming, carbon emission reduction has gradually become a consensus. Compared with the developed areas, the underdeveloped regions are at a significant disadvantage, which not only have the urgent need to rapidly improve the economic level, but also shoulder the responsibility of mitigating carbon emissions. That is, try to limit carbon emissions while maintaining rapid economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the profile of carbon emissions, reveal the key driving mechanisms, and explore effective ways to achieve efficient and low-carbon development. Therefore, we took Guizhou, a less developed province in southwest China, as research area, calculated the carbon emissions from energy consumption and cement production during 1990–2020, identified the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development, investigated the driver factors using the STIRPAT model, and set up five scenarios to predict the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035, to provide scientific data support and decision-making suggestions to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of Guizhou and similar regions. The results show the following: (1) The total carbon emissions show a fluctuating growth trend, up from 55.67 million tonnes in 1990 to 306.17 million tonnes in 2020, in which coal consumption contributes more than 80% of the total. (2) The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is mainly weak decoupling and gradually shifts to strong decoupling. (3) Energy structure plays a decisive role in carbon emissions, for every 1% increase in the ratio of coal in total energy consumption, carbon emissions will increase by 2.202%. (4) Carbon emissions could be greatly limited under policy scenario, which is 8.01% lower than the baseline scenario. The policy scenario is more likely occurred, while the other three scenarios could provide different direction references for further carbon emission reduction.