Interpretable machine learning decodes soil microbiome’s response to drought stress

Abstract Background Extreme weather events induced by climate change, particularly droughts, have detrimental consequences for crop yields and food security. Concurrently, these conditions provoke substantial changes in the soil bacterial microbiota and affect plant health. Early recognition of soil affected by drought enables farmers to implement appropriate agricultural management practices. In this context, interpretable machine learning holds immense potential for drought stress classification of soil based on marker taxa. Results This study demonstrates that the 16S rRNA-based metagenomic approach of Differential Abundance Analysis methods and machine learning-based Shapley Additive Explanation values provide similar information. They exhibit their potential as complementary approaches for identifying marker taxa and investigating their enrichment or depletion under drought stress in grass lineages. Additionally, the Random Forest Classifier trained on a diverse range of relative abundance data from the soil bacterial micobiome of various plant species achieves a high accuracy of 92.3 % at the genus rank for drought stress prediction. It demonstrates its generalization capacity for the lineages tested. Conclusions In the detection of drought stress in soil bacterial microbiota, this study emphasizes the potential of an optimized and generalized location-based ML classifier. By identifying marker taxa, this approach holds promising implications for microbe-assisted plant breeding programs and contributes to the development of sustainable agriculture practices. These findings are crucial for preserving global food security in the face of climate change.