Evolution and influencing factors of coastal resilience in the East China Sea

The coastal zone serves as a crucial hub for economic and population concentration. Amid the context of high-intensity development and global climate change, uncertain risks from diverse sources—including extreme weather events (i.e., high temperatures, typhoons, and excessive precipitation), natural disasters (i.e., floods, tsunamis, landslides, and mudslides), and societal disruptions (i.e., economic crises and viral diseases)—are escalating rapidly. Enhancing coastal resilience to minimize these risk impacts is progressively becoming a mandatory requirement for the sustainable development of coastal zones. However, existing research primarily focuses on distinct disasters, the ecological environment, or specific socio-economic aspects, thereby lacking a comprehensive theoretical framework and thorough analysis of the factors influencing coastal resilience. Here, we construct a theoretical framework centered on the unique traits and processes of coastal resilience, analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of coastal resilience from a grid and administrative division standpoint, and utilize geographic detectors to determine the factors influencing coastal resilience while considering the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Our findings indicate that: (1) Coastal resilience in the East China Sea (ECS) initially declined but then increased, transitioning from a lower to a medium level. Barring the pressure index, other dimensional indices had an upward trend; (2) Continuous improvements were observed in coastal resilience across different land uses. Forests, waters, and oceans demonstrated higher resilience levels than other lands, with construction land resilience developing swiftly. The effect of changes in land use types on coastal resilience showed a rapid initial increase and subsequent decrease; (3) The change pattern of coastal resilience in the ECS is mainly unchanged and slightly increased. Areas with the most drastic changes were concentrated in Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, and central Fujian, with the main change patterns continuously rising; (4) The primary factors influencing coastal resilience in the ECS included gross domestic product and infrastructure construction level. Advanced industrial structure, technological and educational prowess, and effective government management are important determinants of coastal resilience development. The significance of human factors continues to grow. Our findings offer valuable insights for optimizing national spatial planning of coastal zones, responding to internal and external impacts, achieving resilient coastal zones, and implementing a comprehensive sustainable management approach.