Freeze-Thaw cycle representation alters response of watershed hydrology to future climate change

Hydrologic models are widely used for projecting influences of changing climate on water resources. In this study, we compared the original Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an enhanced version of SWAT model with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT) for simulating future annual ET, stream flow, water yield, surface runoff, and subsurface runoff in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). SWAT-FT projected fewer frozen days than the original SWAT model due to its better representation of snow cover insulation effects. Both models derived declining trends in annual streamflow and terrestrial water yield in the late 21st century due to increased ET under warmer climate. However, these two models exhibited contrasting mechanisms underlying the streamflow decline. For original SWAT model, the decrease in surface runoff was the major driver, while for SWAT-FT, reduced subsurface runoff was the main cause. In general, the original SWAT model predicted more surface runoff and less subsurface runoff than SWAT-FT. Further geospatial inspection shows large discrepancies between these two models, particularly in the northern colder parts of the UMRB, where the maximum differences in annual surface and subsurface runoff reached 130 mm yr−1 and 140 mm yr−1, respectively. Collectively, the results demonstrate the importance of accounting for Freeze-Thaw cycles for reliable projection of future water resources.