[A 2-year cohort study on the caries risk assessment of 3-year-old caries-free children using Cariostat caries activity test].

Objective: To evaluate the caries status of a cohort of 3-year-old caries-free children from 2 kindergartens in Beijing in a period of 2 years by using Cariostat caries activity test and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of Cariostat score as a caries risk indicator for caries-free children. Methods: Totally 426 3-year-old caries-free children from 2 kindergartens in Beijing were recruited in the present study. Informed consents were obtained from the children's parents. Dental plaque samples of the children were collected and the Cariostat caries activity tests were conducted at baseline and once a year for 2 years. After two years, the caries status of the cohort children were re-evaluated and the caries incidences amongst children with high (2.0, 2.5, 3.0), medium (1.5) and low (1.0, 0.5, 0.0) levels of Cariostat scores were compared and analyzed. Results: Totally 864 3-year-old children from 2 kindergartens were screened before the study startedand 426 (49.3%) children were caries free. After 2-year follow-up, 312 out of 426 (73.2%) remained in the study. The overall caries incident rate was 46.5% (145/312). The caries incident rate of children with high level of Cariostat scores was 88.9% (88/99), while the caries incident rates of children with medium and low levels of Cariostat scores was 38.7% (36/93) and 17.5% (21/120), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the Cariostat test in assessing the caries risk of 3-year-old caries-free children in a period of 2 years were 60.7% and 93.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Cariostat caries activity test can be used as an indicator to predict the caries risk of 3-year-old caries-free children. Comprehensive caries management could be conducted for children in kindergartens based on the caries risk assessment results of caries experience and the Cariostat score.目的： 评价Cariostat龋易感检测技术用于评估3岁无龋儿童患病风险的准确性和有效性，为临床提供参考。 方法： 以北京市海淀区2所幼儿园2013年9月入园的所有3岁儿童为研究对象，家长签署知情同意书的儿童都接受了龋病患病状况检查和Cariostat龋易感性检测。对无龋儿童纵向追踪2年，观察儿童龋病的发病情况。比较高（龋态值为2.0、2.5、3.0）、中（龋态值为1.5）、低（龋态值为0、0.5、0.0）龋态值组3岁无龋儿童2年患龋率和龋病患病程度间的差异，评价Cariostat龋易感性检测技术用于患龋风险评价的有效性和准确性。 结果： 2013年2所幼儿园864名3岁儿童中无龋儿童共426名（49.3%），426名无龋儿童中共312名（73.2%）儿童完成2年的纵向观察，结果显示2年患龋率为46.5%（145/312）。高龋态值组无龋儿童2年患龋率为88.9%（88/99）；低龋态值组无龋儿童2年患龋率为17.5%（21/120）。以3岁时无龋儿童的龋态值为评估指标，预测儿童未来2年患龋的灵敏度为60.7%，特异度为93.4%。 结论： Cariostat龋易感性检测技术用于3岁无龋儿童可有效预测儿童的患龋风险，该检测技术可用于儿童口腔健康综合管理。.