Research on Passenger Flow Assignment of High-Speed Trains Based on Personalized Itinerary Choice

Under the condition that ticket fare for high-speed train could fluctuate around a benchmark price in China, aimed at predicting how the passengers will distribute among different trains given a ticket fare, the passenger flow assignment method for high-speed trains is studied. Different from the classical researches on the passenger flow assignment, by introducing a variable that represents the value of time, this research allows passengers to make their personalized choice between the principles of time minimization and expense minimization, so as to demonstrate how the passengers holding different time values respond to each ticket fare scheme. An equilibrium passenger flow assignment model based on personalized choice is built and an improved Monte-Carlo random simulation algorithm is designed for solving the model. The actual ticket sale data for Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway are used to verify the feasibility of the proposed model and algorithm. The passenger flow assignment results under various fare schemes show how the distribution of passenger flow changes with the adjustment of ticket fare.