Applying the moving epidemic method to determine influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds using influenza‐like illness surveillance data 2009‐2018 in Tunisia

大流行 流感季节 2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19) 医学 准备 人口学 流行病模型 严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型(SARS-CoV-2) 病毒学 环境卫生 兽医学 接种疫苗 流感疫苗 传染病(医学专业) 人口 内科学 疾病 社会学 政治学 法学
作者
Hind Bouguerra,Elyes Boutouria,Mokhtar Zorraga,Amal Cherif,Rihab Yazidi,Naima Abdeddaiem,Latifa Maazaoui,Awatef ElMoussi,Salma Abid,Slim Amine,Leila Bouabid,Souha Bougatef,Mohamed Kouni Chahed,Afif Ben Salah,Jihène Bettaieb,Nissaf Ben Alaya
出处
期刊:Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses [Wiley]
卷期号:14 (5): 507-514 被引量:5
标识
DOI:10.1111/irv.12748
摘要

Abstract Background Defining the start and assessing the intensity of influenza seasons are essential to ensure timely preventive and control measures and to contribute to the pandemic preparedness. The present study aimed to determine the epidemic and intensity thresholds of influenza season in Tunisia using the moving epidemic method. Methods We applied the moving epidemic method (MEM) using the R Language implementation (package “mem”). We have calculated the epidemic and the different intensity thresholds from historical data of the past nine influenza seasons (2009‐2010 to 2017‐2018) and assessed the impact of the 2009‐2010 pandemic year. Data used were the weekly influenza‐like illness (ILI) proportions compared with all outpatient acute consultations. The goodness of the model was assessed using a cross validation procedure. Results The average duration of influenza epidemic during a typical season was 20 weeks and ranged from 11 weeks (2009‐2010 season) to 23 weeks (2015‐2016 season). The epidemic threshold with the exclusion of the pandemic season was 6.25%. It had a very high sensitivity of 85% and a high specificity of 69%. The different levels of intensity were established as follows: low, if ILI proportion is below 9.74%, medium below 12.05%; high below 13.27%; and very high above this last rate. Conclusions This is the first mathematically based study of seasonal threshold of influenza in Tunisia. As in other studies in different countries, the model has shown both good specificity and sensitivity, which allows timely and accurate detection of the start of influenza seasons. The findings will contribute to the development of more efficient measures for influenza prevention and control.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
oneonlycrown发布了新的文献求助10
刚刚
脑洞疼应助aaiirrii采纳,获得10
1秒前
小鞠佩奇发布了新的文献求助10
2秒前
wu8577应助fan采纳,获得10
2秒前
zzx发布了新的文献求助10
3秒前
3秒前
3秒前
懵懂的翼完成签到 ,获得积分10
4秒前
echo发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
ygh0122完成签到 ,获得积分20
6秒前
汉堡包应助马上毕业采纳,获得10
6秒前
在水一方应助ning_qing采纳,获得10
7秒前
kiki发布了新的文献求助10
9秒前
11完成签到 ,获得积分10
9秒前
何pengda发布了新的文献求助10
10秒前
量子星尘发布了新的文献求助10
10秒前
hjl90527发布了新的文献求助10
11秒前
dustomb完成签到,获得积分10
13秒前
kinizu完成签到,获得积分10
14秒前
oneonlycrown完成签到,获得积分10
14秒前
自信的碧发布了新的文献求助20
17秒前
xiaoshuwang完成签到,获得积分10
17秒前
19秒前
13击完成签到,获得积分10
19秒前
20秒前
sangxuet完成签到,获得积分10
20秒前
wangbq完成签到 ,获得积分10
21秒前
晓薇完成签到,获得积分10
21秒前
22秒前
22秒前
吕韦霖发布了新的文献求助10
22秒前
23秒前
和谐依珊发布了新的文献求助10
24秒前
jagger发布了新的文献求助10
24秒前
青柠完成签到,获得积分10
24秒前
fan完成签到,获得积分10
24秒前
何pengda完成签到,获得积分10
24秒前
绿麦盲区完成签到,获得积分10
25秒前
YSY发布了新的文献求助10
27秒前
27秒前
高分求助中
Ophthalmic Equipment Market by Devices(surgical: vitreorentinal,IOLs,OVDs,contact lens,RGP lens,backflush,diagnostic&monitoring:OCT,actorefractor,keratometer,tonometer,ophthalmoscpe,OVD), End User,Buying Criteria-Global Forecast to2029 2000
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind (Sixth Edition) 1000
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 588
Christian Women in Chinese Society: The Anglican Story 500
A Preliminary Study on Correlation Between Independent Components of Facial Thermal Images and Subjective Assessment of Chronic Stress 500
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3961059
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3507282
关于积分的说明 11135400
捐赠科研通 3239738
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1790416
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 872379
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 803150