Probabilistic residual deformation prediction model for rectangular reinforced concrete columns

Abstract This paper presents a probabilistic residual deformation prediction model for estimating the nonlinear response and demolition probability of reinforced concrete structures. An empirical relation between the residual deformation and column physical parameters was formulated from experimental observations. The accuracy of the proposed model was compared to those of three deterministic models available in the literature. The proposed model better represented the central tendency of the observed residual deformations than the prediction of the deterministic models. Nonlinear dynamic analyses using 44 far‐field ground motions on a modern four‐story reinforced concrete building frame are conducted to investigate discrepancies in demolition probability associated with different residual deformation models. The difference between the medians of demolition fragility predicted by the deterministic and probabilistic models was 20–50%, indicating that the probabilistic model has a significantly higher dispersion than that of the deterministic models.