Delta-radiomics based on CT predicts pathologic complete response in ESCC treated with neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy and surgery

Background and purpose Unnecessary surgery can be avoided, and more appropriate treatment plans can be developed for patients if the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy for esophageal cancer (EC) can be predicted before surgery. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of machine learning models based on delta features of immunochemotherapy CT images to predict the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) compared with machine learning models based solely on postimmunochemotherapy CT images. Materials and methods A total of 95 patients were enrolled in our study and randomly divided into a training group (n = 66) and test group (n = 29). We extracted preimmunochemotherapy radiomics features from preimmunochemotherapy enhanced CT images in the preimmunochemotherapy group (pregroup) and postimmunochemotherapy radiomics features from postimmunochemotherapy enhanced CT images in the postimmunochemotherapy group (postgroup). We then subtracted the preimmunochemotherapy features from the postimmunochemotherapy features and obtained a series of new radiomics features that were included in the delta group. The reduction and screening of radiomics features were carried out by using the Mann-Whitney U test and LASSO regression. Five pairwise machine learning models were established, the performance of which was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses. Results The radiomics signature of the postgroup was composed of 6 radiomics features; that of the delta-group was composed of 8 radiomics features. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the machine learning model with the best efficacy was 0.824 (0.706-0.917) in the postgroup and 0.848 (0.765-0.917) in the delta group. The decision curve showed that our machine learning models had good predictive performance. The delta group performed better than the postgroup for each corresponding machine learning model. Conclusion We established machine learning models that have good predictive efficacy and can provide certain reference values for clinical treatment decision-making. Our machine learning models based on delta imaging features performed better than those based on single time-stage postimmunochemotherapy imaging features.