Comrades in arms? Decoding China's Taliban gamble

Afghanistan has gingerly inched its way up in the Zhongnanhai's strategic calculus. Over the past decade, Beijing sought to carefully recalibrate its Afghan strategy, engaging with state and non-state actors that dot the landscape. Beijing's strategy has been underpinned by a desire to protect its core interests, in the security and economic realm, by ensconcing them in relationships it has cultivated with actors like the Taliban dating back to the 1990s. It has choreographed these alignments too, in sync with the changing contours of the regions' geopolitical landscape. Following the chaotic withdrawal of US-led forces from Afghanistan and the meteoric collapse of the Western-backed government in Kabul, the Zhongnanhai is now confronted with opportunities and challenges in its immediate neighbourhood. Beijing's ambitions are boosted by a convergence of interests with the seemingly implausible alliance of key regional players, namely: Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as China navigates uncharted waters. It will be argued that the mutual embrace of Zhongnanhai and Taliban underpinned by realpolitik has its limitations. While Beijing has demonstrated little enthusiasm to fill in the vacuum generated with the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and has not rushed to tighten its embrace of the group, the Taliban too, while keen to amplify the basket of diplomatic options, will find it hard to reconcile its ideological fellow travellers with Beijing. Moreover, the long-term endurance of convergent regional interests remains in doubt and may cast a shadow over Beijing's Taliban gamble.