Tele-connections, driving forces and scenario simulation of agricultural land, water use and carbon emissions in China's trade

Exploring the virtual resources flow along supply chains and the coupling relationship among different resources is important for promoting sustainable agricultural development. In this study, by combing environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) methods, we analyzed the transfer of agricultural virtual water, land and carbon emissions in China's regional trade and identified the hidden driving forces. We further explored agricultural water-land-carbon nexus evolution characteristics in different development scenarios. The results showed that trade-embodied agricultural land, water use and carbon emissions increase by 8.5 %, 15.4 % and 27.3 % from 2007 to 2017 respectively. The flow trend is mainly from water-starved northern China to southern and southeastern China. Virtual water flows reduce 41.5 % and embodied carbon emissions reduce 31.9 % after the improvement of water use efficiency and reduction of carbon intensity in 2030 under the W2LC2 scenario, where faces the least water-land-carbon pressure. The results provide important information for alleviating the inequality of regional resource and environmental pressure in China.