Nomograms predict survival in elderly women with triple-negative breast cancer: A SEER population-based study

列线图 肿瘤科 医学 乳腺癌 三阴性乳腺癌 内科学 人口 三重阴性 癌症 环境卫生
作者
Ruigang Feng,Wenwen Huang,Bowen Liu,Dan Li,Jinlai Zhao,Yue Yu,Xuchen Cao,X. Wang
出处
期刊:Technology and Health Care [IOS Press]
卷期号:: 1-17
标识
DOI:10.3233/thc-231240
摘要

BACKGROUND: The effective treatment of breast cancer in elderly patients remains a major challenge. OBJECTIVE: To construct a nomogram affecting the overall survival of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and establish a survival risk prediction model. METHODS: A total of 5317 TPBC patients with negative expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) who were diagnosed and received systematic treatment from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the American Cancer Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into training set (n= 3721) and validation set (n= 1596). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify prognostic features, and a nomogram was established to predict the probability of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS and BCSS. We used consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the predictive performance and clinical utility of the nomogram. RESULTS: The C-indices of the nomograms for OS and BCSS in the training cohort were 0.797 and 0.825, respectively, whereas those in the validation cohort were 0.795 and 0.818, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves had higher sensitivity at all specificity values as compared with the Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) system. The calibration plot revealed a satisfactory relationship between survival rates and predicted outcomes in both the training and validation cohorts. DCA demonstrated that the nomogram had clinical utility when compared with the TNM staging system. CONCLUSION: This study provides information on population-based clinical characteristics and prognostic factors for patients with triple-negative breast cancer, and constructs a reliable and accurate prognostic nomogram.
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