Regional complex system simulation optimization through linking governance and environment performance: A case study of water environmental carrying capacity based on the SDES model

The resolution of issues related to sustainable development in regions and urbans is closely related to the complex systems, which lie not only in the numerous subsystems and spatial hierarchy, but also in the complex relationships between humans, socioeconomic, environmental and governance. The system dynamics (SD) model has been widely used in modeling regional and urban complex systems which involve multi-dimensional socio-economic and environmental issues. However, most simulations have focused on the state variables, such as the end-state social-economic and environmental situation, while the interaction between governance and their consequences on complex systems has been scarce. In addition, the social-ecological system (SES) framework has been endorsed worldwide because of its ability to explicitly recognize the complex interactions among socioeconomic-ecological-governance subsystems. To date, there have been few studies that combine the SES framework and complex systems models to quantitatively simulate the environmental performance of governance. In this research, we try to fill this gap by combining both to create a SDES model to quantitatively simulate the impacts of stakeholders' actions on environmental performance, and the feasibility of SDES model is verified by simulating the impacts of stakeholders' actions on water environment carrying capacity (WECC) in Liyang City, China. Moreover, we establish a cost-benefit analytical framework to identify the most cost-effective action to improve WECC based on the SDES model. Findings of this research contribute new theoretical and methodological insights into addressing environmental issues while we are facing a more complex regional and urban system and fragmented governance.