Spatiotemporal Characteristics Prediction and Driving Factors Analysis of NPP in Shanxi Province Covering the Period 2001–2020

初级生产 环境科学 赫斯特指数 支持向量机 气候变化 生产力 时间序列 自然地理学 气候学 生态系统 气象学 环境资源管理 计算机科学 统计 地理 数学 机器学习 生态学 地质学 宏观经济学 生物 经济
作者
Wanru Ba,Haitao Qiu,Yong-gang Cao,Adu Gong
出处
期刊:Sustainability [Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute]
卷期号:15 (15): 12070-12070 被引量:2
标识
DOI:10.3390/su151512070
摘要

The advent of a range of high-precision NPP products, including MODIS NPP, MOD17 NPP, and GIMMS NPP, has sparked growing interest in the study of Earth’s ecosystems. In order to enhance comprehension of ecosystem health, in order to facilitate the development of rational resource management and environmental conservation policies, this investigation employs the MOD17A3 dataset to analyze historical variations in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) within Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2020, while also exploring future trends. The Theil–Sen median trend analysis and Mann–Kendall test are commonly used methods for analyzing time series data, employed to study the spatiotemporal trends and variations in NPP. The Grey Wolf Optimization–Support Vector Machine (GWO–SVM) model combines optimization algorithms and machine learning methods, enhancing the predictive capacity of the model for future NPP time series changes. Conversely, the Hurst exponent utilizes historical NPP trends to assess the persistence characteristics of NPP and predict future spatial variations in NPP. This study additionally investigates the natural driving factors of NPP using the Geographic Detector approach. The key findings of this study are as follows. (1) Overall, NPP in Shanxi Province exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an average value of 206.278 gCm−2a−1. Spatially, NPP exhibits a northwest–low and southeast–high pattern, with significant spatial heterogeneity and considerable variability. (2) The average Hurst exponent is 0.86, indicating a characteristic of strong persistence in growth in future NPP. Regions with strong or higher persistent growth account for 95.54% of the total area. (3) According to the CMIP6 climate scenarios, NPP is projected to gradually increase from 2025 to 2030. (4) The interactive effects between natural factors contribute more to NPP variations than individual factors, with the rainfall–elevation interaction having the highest contribution percentage.
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