A novel multilevel decision-making evaluation approach for the renewable energy heating systems: A case study in China

Renewable energy (RE) sources are important alternatives to mitigate the energy crisis and achieve sustainable development. Appropriate selection of RE system solutions is extremely crucial. Selection of the best RE technology requires the consideration of conflicting qualitative and quantitative evaluation criteria. Many evaluation criteria are judged with subjectivity and uncertainty. However, the description of uncertainty in the evaluation process remains a large research gap. Therefore, a novel combined evaluation method is developed to describe and visualize the uncertainty in the assessment process. The proposed evaluation method is tested for RE heating system selection. The RE systems are evaluated based on five dimensions and 15 evaluation indicators. This multidimensional indicator framework not only includes the three basic evaluation groups of energy, economy, and environment, but also extends to the performance of technology and policy. The combined weights of the evaluation indicators consist of objective weights and subjective weights. The objective weights are obtained by the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method and subjective weights are calculated by the improved Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The set pair analysis (SPA) is introduced to assess the performance of different RE systems. It considers the uncertainty of indicator performance. A novel approach to visualizing the fuzziness of SPA evaluation is developed using the cloud model. Finally, the RE system ranking calculated by the proposed method is performed. The originality of this work is offering a promising method for RE selection and clarifying the degree of ambiguity in the evaluation process. It helps decision makers have an exact idea about the accuracy of the evaluation. It provides insights into multi-objective decision-making problems.