Ascending phase of solar cycle 25 tilts the current El Niño–Southern oscillation transition

A La Niña condition in the equatorial Pacific began in the early summer of 2020 and has lasted more than two and a half years (referred to as the 2020 La Niña hereafter). Predicting its temporal evolution had attracted a lot of attention. Considering the possible phase-locked impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropical Pacific variability, in this study we present the possible modulations by the current solar cycle, i.e., solar cycle 25 (SC25), on the future temporal evolution of the current ENSO state. Based on statistical features of historical solar cycles, we propose three possible scenarios of the timing of the SC25 maximum year and discuss its possible impacts on the temporal evolution of the 2020 La Niña in the next two years. The ongoing ascending phase of SC25 dampens the development of a super El Niño condition to some extent in 2023.