北京
地理
土地覆盖
土地利用
生态系统服务
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
生态系统
环境资源管理
环境保护
生态学
自然地理学
环境科学
中国
生物
考古
作者
Pengyan Zhang,Qianxu Wang,Yu Liu,Jinbing Zhang
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103389
摘要
Ecosystem services (ESs) bridge the gap between human wellbeing and ecosystem processes. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), one of the most developed urban agglomerations in China, is subject to intense LUCC that affects ESs while increasing the regional ecological risk (ER). Therefore, to achieve the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological quality, there is an urgent need to establish a regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). ESs were introduced into the ERA to clarify their ecological significance and to compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional ERA. In this study, the ERA utilizes key ESs as endpoints to assess potential ER through a new framework by multiplying the probability of LUCC by the resultant loss of key ESs. We found that cultivated land was the most dominant outflow type and built-up land was the predominant inflow type. From 2020 to 2030, there is a greater possibility of changes in cultivated land, forest, grassland, and built-up land as well as in relatively stable water bodies and unused land. Overall, ESs show a positive trend. The overall potential ER was relatively minimal, with a significant northwestern spatially concentrated characteristic of high values. This study helps understand the potential development process of ERs and provides a scientific basis for risk management.
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