Tree-based ensemble machine learning models in the prediction of acute respiratory distress syndrome following cardiac surgery: a multicenter cohort study

Abstract Background Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after cardiac surgery is a severe respiratory complication with high mortality and morbidity. Traditional clinical approaches may lead to under recognition of this heterogeneous syndrome, potentially resulting in diagnosis delay. This study aims to develop and external validate seven machine learning (ML) models, trained on electronic health records data, for predicting ARDS after cardiac surgery. Methods This multicenter, observational cohort study included patients who underwent cardiac surgery in the training and testing cohorts (data from Nanjing First Hospital), as well as those patients who had cardiac surgery in a validation cohort (data from Shanghai General Hospital). The number of important features was determined using the sliding windows sequential forward feature selection method (SWSFS). We developed a set of tree-based ML models, including Decision Tree, GBDT, AdaBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Deep Forest. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) techinque was employed to interpret the ML model. Furthermore, a comparison was made between the ML models and traditional scoring systems. ARDS is defined according to the Berlin definition. Results A total of 1996 patients who had cardiac surgery were included in the study. The top five important features identified by the SWSFS were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative albumin, central venous pressure_T4, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and left ventricular ejection fraction. Among the seven ML models, Deep Forest demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.882 and a Brier score of 0.809 in the validation cohort. Notably, the SHAP values effectively illustrated the contribution of the 13 features attributed to the model output and the individual feature's effect on model prediction. In addition, the ensemble ML models demonstrated better performance than the other six traditional scoring systems. Conclusions Our study identified 13 important features and provided multiple ML models to enhance the risk stratification for ARDS after cardiac surgery. Using these predictors and ML models might provide a basis for early diagnostic and preventive strategies in the perioperative management of ARDS patients.