Rapid inference of direct interactions in large-scale ecological networks from heterogeneous microbial sequencing data

Abstract The recent explosion of metagenomic sequencing data opens the door towards the modeling of microbial ecosystems in unprecedented detail. In particular, co-occurrence based prediction of ecological interactions could strongly benefit from this development. However, current methods fall short on several fronts: univariate tools do not distinguish between direct and indirect interactions, resulting in excessive false positives, while approaches with better resolution are so far computationally highly limited. Furthermore, confounding variables typical for cross-study data sets are rarely addressed. We present FlashWeave, a new approach based on a flexible Probabilistic Graphical Models framework to infer highly resolved direct microbial interactions from massive heterogeneous microbial abundance data sets with seamless integration of metadata. On a variety of benchmarks, FlashWeave outperforms state-of-the-art methods by several orders of magnitude in terms of speed while generally providing increased accuracy. We apply FlashWeave to a cross-study data set of 69 818 publicly available human gut samples, resulting in one of the largest and most diverse models of microbial interactions in the human gut to date.