A new model for the prediction of earthquake ground-motion duration in Iran

The paper proposes a new empirical model to estimate earthquake ground-motion duration, which significantly influences the damage potential of an earthquake. The paper is concerned with significant duration parameters that are defined as the time intervals between which specified values of Arias intensity are reached. In the proposed model, significant duration parameters have been expressed as a function of moment magnitude, closest site-source distance, and site condition. The predictive model has been developed based on a database of earthquake ground-motion records in Iran, containing 286 records up to the year 2007, and a random-effect regression procedure. The result of the proposed model has been compared with that of other published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground-motion duration in Iran with adequate accuracy.