The Spiral of Silence and Public Opinion on Affirmative Action

This study sought to more fully explicate the key variables involved in Noelle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory, which states that fear of isolation keeps individuals from expressing opinions perceived to be in the minority. We tested the theory in the context of public discussion about affirmative action policies, a domain seemingly ideal due to its moral and value-laden characteristics. Data from 217 randomly selected adults in October 1998 indicate that fear of isolation indeed prevents one from publicly voicing perceived minority opinions. Willingness to speak out on a controversial ballot initiative was predicted also by demographics, media use, and importance of the issue. However, it was perceived consonance of one's opinion with family and friends—rather than society at large—that predicted willingness to speak out.