Path analysis for carbon transfers embodied in China's international trade and policy implications for mitigation targets

International trade has shifted part of the responsibility for carbon mitigation from consumers to producers, therefore quantifying mitigation targets and allocating responsibilities have become the focus of research. This study quantified carbon transfers between mainland China and its trade partners from a consumption perspective, and identified the transfer paths from initial production to final production and then consumption. We projected China's allowed carbon increment before peak carbon, and recommend policy measures based on different national technological levels. Given China's 1.25 Gt net exports of carbon, the country's share of the allowed carbon increment before peak carbon would increase from 30% to 51% in 2015 before 2030. The net carbon transfer paths from China driven by consumption by its trading partners accounted for 87% of the total number of paths, with paths to the United States and Hong Kong for exports of both primary and final products being the most prominent. On the other hand, the net carbon import transfer paths driven by China's consumption were dominated by imports of primary products from South Korea and Russia. In comparison with the production country, a country that drives net carbon transfers and has a higher technological level should strengthen its industrial and consumption structures and reduce emission through technical assistance to countries with a lower technological level; the latter should improve production efficiency to reduce imported demand and mitigate the emission. Our study provides a methodological framework and theoretical guidance for a more scientific and equitable allocation of carbon mitigation responsibilities.