Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

Renewable energy use is on the rise and these alternative resources of energy can help combat with the climate change. Around 80% of the world's electricity comes from coal and petroleum however, the renewables are the fastest growing source of energy in the world. Solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and biogas are the most common forms of renewable energy. Among them, wind energy is emerging as a reliable and large-scaled source of power production. The recent research and confidence in the performance has led to the construction of more and bigger wind turbines around the world. As wind turbines are getting bigger, a concern regarding their safety is also in discussion. Wind turbines are expensive machinery to construct and the enormous capital investment is one of the main reasons, why many countries are unable to adopt to the wind energy. Generally, a reliable wind turbine will result in better performance and assist in minimizing the cost of operation. If a wind turbine fails, it's a loss of investment and can be harmful for the surrounding habitat. This thesis aims towards estimating the reliability of an offshore wind turbine. A model of Jacket type offshore wind turbine is prepared by using finite element software package ABAQUS and is compared with the structural failure criteria of the wind turbine tower. UQLab, which is a general uncertainty quantification framework developed at ETH Zurich, is used for the reliability analysis. Several probabilistic methods are included in the framework of UQLab, which include Monte Carlo, First Order Reliability Analysis and Adaptive Kriging Monte Carlo simulation. This reliability study is performed only for the structural failure of the wind turbine but it can be extended to many other forms of failures e.g. reliability for power production, or reliability for different component failures etc. It's a useful tool that can be utilized to estimate the reliability of future wind turbines, that could result in more safer and better performance of wind turbines.