Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Contrastive and Contextual Learning for Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is of great importance for human life and various real-world fields, e.g., traffic prediction, agricultural production, and tourist industry. Existing methods can be roughly divided into two categories: theory-driven (e.g., numerical weather prediction (NWP)) and data-driven methods. Theory-driven methods require a complex simulation of the physical evolution process in the atmosphere model using supercomputers, while most data-driven methods learn the underlying laws from the historical weather records via deep learning models. However, some data-driven methods simply regard all weather variables of monitoring stations as a whole and fail to more granularly exploit complex correlations across different stations, while others prefer to construct large neural networks with massive learnable parameters. To alleviate these defects, we propose a spatio-temporal contrastive self-supervision method and a generative contextual self-supervised technique to capture spatial and temporal dependencies from the station-level and variable-level, respectively. Through these well-designed self-supervised tasks, uncomplicated networks obtain strong capability to capture latent representations for weather changes with time-varying. Thereafter, an effective encoder-decoder based fine-tuning framework is proposed, consisting of three self-supervised encoders. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world weather condition datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art models and also empirically validates the feasibility of each self-supervised task.