Geographical Distribution Pattern and Ecological Niche of Solenopsis invicta Buren in China under Climate Change

Invasive alien ant species pose serious threats to agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health in China. Solenopsis invicta Buren is the most destructive and aggressive invasive alien ant in China, causing serious agricultural and urban economic losses and public health concerns. Estimating its spatial distribution and ecological niche in China is crucial for S. invicta prevention and control. Based on 4195 occurrence records (4096 invasive occurrence records and 99 native occurrence records) and 10 environmental variables, we estimated the potential suitable area and ecological niche of S. invicta in China using the ensemble model and ‘ecospat’ package in R language. The mean AUC, KAPPA, and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.989, 0.901, and 0.901, respectively, indicating that the ensemble model was better than the single-species distribution model for the simulation. Temperature, precipitation, and human factors are important variables that influence the distribution of S. invicta. Our results showed that the ecological niche similarity and equivalency test results showed that the ecological niches between native areas and China were not equivalent (D = 0.46, p = 0.001), but were more similar than would be expected by chance (p = 0.003). Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable area for S. invicta is 192.89 × 104 km2 in China, accounting for 20.09% of the land area in China; this land is mainly distributed in Hainan, Taiwan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Henan. Under future climatic conditions, the potential suitable areas of S. invicta will further increase, while the highly suitable areas will shift to higher latitudes. We suggest that early warning and monitoring of S. invicta in the central and northern areas of China should be strengthened to prevent its further spread.