Prediction of cadmium bioavailability in the rice-soil system on a county scale based on the multi-surface speciation model

Relative to total cadmium (Cd) content, bioavailable Cd in paddy soil is regarded as a more reasonable indicator for the risk of Cd bioaccumulation in rice. However, there is still a lack of approach to accurately predict the content of bioavailable Cd in paddy soil due to its heterogeneity and complexity. Here, multi-surface speciation model (MSM) was employed to predict the bioavailable Cd and Cd immobilization effect. Moreover, a precise remediation strategy was designed based on screening and scenario simulation of the sensitive factors with MSM. The results demonstrated that MSM can well predict Cd bioaccumulation risk in rice. The contribution of pH to Cd bioavailability was quantified under three analysis scenarios, accounting for 87.51% of the total variance of bioavailable Cd. In addition, the pH alert value (6.31 ± 0.52) for Cd risk was acquired for each rice field on a county scale. A precise map for the application amount of lime materials was constructed by taking CaCO3 (3.38–15.75 t ha−1) as a recommended economical and green immobilization agent. This study provides a potentially effective approach for risk assessment of Cd contamination in rice and important reference for precise Cd remediation in paddy soil.