Cell state-dependent allelic effects and contextual Mendelian randomization analysis for human brain phenotypes

Abstract Gene expression quantitative trait loci are widely used to infer relationships between genes and central nervous system (CNS) phenotypes; however, the effect of brain disease on these inferences is unclear. Using 2,348,438 single-nuclei profiles from 391 disease-case and control brains, we report 13,939 genes whose expression correlated with genetic variation, of which 16.7–40.8% (depending on cell type) showed disease-dependent allelic effects. Across 501 colocalizations for 30 CNS traits, 23.6% had a disease dependency, even after adjusting for disease status. To estimate the unconfounded effect of genes on outcomes, we repeated the analysis using nondiseased brains ( n = 183) and reported an additional 91 colocalizations not present in the larger mixed disease and control dataset, demonstrating enhanced interpretation of disease-associated variants. Principled implementation of single-cell Mendelian randomization in control-only brains identified 140 putatively causal gene–trait associations, of which 11 were replicated in the UK Biobank, prioritizing candidate peripheral biomarkers predictive of CNS outcomes.