Assessing sustainable future of import-independent domestic soybean production in China: policy implications and projections for 2030

Soybean production, integral to sustainable agriculture and reliant on imports, faces vulnerability to international risk factors impacting domestic food security. The 2021 Central Rural Work Conference advocated strategic adjustments for sustainable soybean production amidst resource constraints, trade conflicts, and the lingering impact of COVID-19. This study scrutinizes the developmental framework of China’s soybean industry within current domestic policies. This paper uses the soybean sown area and soybean production in each province of China from 1995 to 2020 to measure China’s soybean concentration, production layout, and comparative advantage of regional scale, to analyze in depth the overall situation of China’s soybean production as well as the differences between regions, and to pave the way for the subsequent soybean production forecast. Further, taking the domestic soybean supply and demand situation in China in 2020 as the base period, while considering the growth values of soybean production under different scenarios, the potential forecasting model is utilized to estimate China’s soybean production under different scenarios. The results show that, in terms of inter-annual variability, revealing an upward trajectory from 1995 to 2020, with a shift to major soybean producing areas, notably in the northeast and the Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe area. From inter-provincial changes, Soybean production on the left and right sides of the “Hu-Huanyong line” has significant heterogeneity; specifically, east of the “Hu-Huanyong line,” soybean production advantages are more obvious. Additionally, the study considered the actual planting situation of soybeans and envisaged two scenarios of compound planting and strip planting. The soybean production range in 2030 is expected to be 20.73–22.32 million tons and 21.15–27.55 million tons, with self-sufficiency rates varying from 18.57 to 19.98% and 18.95 to 24.68%, respectively. The research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of China’s soybean industry and its potential trajectories, employing a model combining historical trends, policy analysis, and technological advancements. Results suggest a promising future with strategic adjustments in planting structures. Recommendations emphasize policymakers’ prioritization of technological investments and sustainable planting practices to achieve projected production targets. Policy interventions must address challenges tied to resource limitations, trade conflicts, and the ongoing COVID-19 effects, ensuring soybean industry resilience.