Comparison of triglyceride glucose index and modified triglyceride glucose indices in prediction of cardiovascular diseases in middle aged and older Chinese adults

Abstract Background Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index, a surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been validated as a predictor of cardiovascular disease. However, effects of TyG-related indices combined with obesity markers on cardiovascular diseases remained unknown. We aimed to investigate the associations between TyG index and modified TyG indices with new-onset cardiovascular disease and the time-dependent predictive capacity using a national representative cohort. Methods This study is a retrospective observational cohort study using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) of 7 115 participants. The TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The modified TyG indices were developed combining TyG with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to‐height ratio (WHtR). We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the association and predictive capacity based on hazard ratio (HR) and Harrell’s C‐index. Results Over a 7-year follow‐up period, 2136 participants developed cardiovascular disease, including 1633 cases of coronary heart disease and 719 cases of stroke. Compared with the lowest tertile group, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for new-onset cardiovascular disease in the highest tertile for TyG, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR were 1.215 (1.088–1.356), 1.073 (0.967–1.191), 1.078 (0.970–1.198), and 1.112 (1.002–1.235), respectively. The C‐indices of TyG index for cardiovascular disease onset were higher than other modified TyG indices. Similar results were observed for coronary heart disease and stroke. Conclusion TyG and TyG-WhtR were significantly associated with new-onset cardiovascular diseases, and TyG outperformed the modified TyG indices to identify individuals at risk of incident cardiovascular event.