Subclinical left atrial dysfunction profiles for prediction of cardiac outcome in the general population

Objective: Echocardiographic definitions of subclinical left atrial dysfunction based on epidemiological data remain scarce. In this population study, we derived outcome-driven thresholds for echocardiographic left atrial function parameters discriminating between normal and abnormal values. Methods: In 1306 individuals (mean age, 50.7 years; 51.6% women), we echocardiographically assessed left atrial function and LV global longitudinal strain. We derived cut-off values for left atrial emptying fraction (LAEF), left atrial function index (LAFI) and left atrial reservoir strain (LARS) to define left atrial dysfunction using receiver-operating curve threshold analysis. Main outcome was the incidence of cardiac events and atrial fibrillation (AFib) on average 8.5 years later. Results: For prediction of new-onset AFib, left atrial cut-offs yielding the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (highest Youden index) were: LAEF less than 55%, LAFI less than 40.5 and LARS less than 23%. Applying these cut-offs, abnormal LAEF, LAFI and LARS were, respectively, present in 27, 37.1 and 18.1% of the cohort. Abnormal LARS (<23%) was independently associated with higher risk for cardiac events and new-onset AFib (P ≤ 0.012). Participants with both abnormal LAEF and LARS presented a significantly higher risk to develop cardiac events (hazard ratio: 2.10; P = 0.014) and AFib (hazard ratio: 6.45; P = 0.0036) than normal counterparts. The concomitant presence of an impaired LARS and LV global longitudinal strain improved prognostic accuracy beyond a clinical risk model for cardiac events and the CHARGE-AF Risk Score for AFib. Conclusion: Left atrial dysfunction based on outcome-driven thresholds predicted cardiac events and AFib independent of conventional risk factors. Screening for subclinical left atrial and LV systolic dysfunction may enhance cardiac disease prediction in the community.